The Planning Fallacy, A Frequent Cause Of Unproductivity

The planning fallacy is a concept we all know. It has to do with that usual phenomenon in which the plans do not coincide with the facts. This, particularly, in terms of time.

It happens on any terrain. Both in the workplace , and in the personal. We check it when we make a list of tasks to be done and at the end of the day, or of the week, or of the month, many of those activities are without the approval that would correspond to them.

That inconsistency between plans and executions has consequences in terms of time, of course. However, it also has implications in terms of resources, productivity and efficiency. Even the planning fallacy can have serious emotional effects.

The origin of the planning fallacy

From the beginning of the industrial age, the planning fallacy began to be talked about, although not exactly by that name. When industrial and later serial production was imposed on the world, the time factor took on special relevance. The central objective in this context was defined as producing the most, in the least amount of time. Profitability depended and does depend on it.

Since then, both at the organizational and individual level, planning has become a relevant exercise. Despite this, it quickly became apparent that the plans on paper almost never matched the actual execution that was taking place.

It took several decades before highly consistent planning was achieved in the industrial field. At the same time, at the individual level and in companies where production depends more on people than on machines, this began to figure among the basically impossible tasks.

It was in 1979 that Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky posited the existence of the planning fallacy. They understood that the problem was very common and found that behind all this there was a cognitive bias. A self-deception associated with limitations in the perception of reality.

Characteristics of the planning fallacy

Over time it has been possible to describe in detail the characteristics of the planning fallacy. Today this is understood as an illusory perception of time that leads to mistakes in planning activities.

Here are the main characteristics of the planning fallacy:

• It has been detected that when planning the visualization of the most optimistic scenario prevails. This means that plans are made based on the idea that everything will pass normally, without setbacks, eventualities or unforeseen events.
• Illusory thinking stands out. This is the name of the type of approach in which the desire itself influences more than an objective assessment of reality. In other words, you think with the desire
• There is an inappropriate interpretation of one’s own performance. When planning, people value their own abilities positively. They assume that they are able to do things very smoothly and in a short time. This is one of the central factors in the planning fallacy.

• If planning is done collectively, people tend to get carried away by the desire to impress others. In this case, you want to show that you are very efficient and that is why imprecise calculations of the time required by the tasks are made

Likewise, it is common for people to have the conviction that the faster they do things, the better they will be evaluated by others. Hence, they lightly schedule the time they need to do something.

The consequences of the planning fallacy

The main consequence of the planning fallacy is inadequate time management. In some cases this also supposes a mismatch in the management of resources. Likewise, it implies a deficient evaluation, depending on the expectations raised.

However, all this is not the worst. What is really expensive is the price you pay on the emotional level. The subjective result of the planning fallacy is a feeling of constant frustration. Also a variable dose of permanent stress. Failure to comply induces feelings of tension and discomfort.

The way to avoid this cognitive bias is by taking note of past experiences. These provide reliable data on the true amount of time that each activity requires. When planning it is always better to propose a margin of extra time, to address possible unforeseen events or eventualities. That avoids falling into these hurtful cycles of frustration.